Renault, Nissan and Mitsubishi alliance chairman Carlos Ghosn and Volvo CEO Håkan Samuelsson have expressed doubt over the long-term future of diesel engines.
"Europe had legislation that allowed NOx levels of diesel engines to be high, but it is safe to say those days are over," Samuelsson said at the Geneva motor show. "We have to make a diesel engine with the same NOx as a petrol engine, and while that can be done, it will be more expensive, which is why in the long term it's a negative thing."
“The use of diesel in Europe is projected to go down and it is going down. The only question is how fast and in which segment because the speed of decline is different for each segment. The decline in the D- (large), C- (medium) and SUV segment is not the same as B- (small) segment where you are going to see a lot of carmakers get out of diesel in the lower segment,” Ghosn said addressing reporters at the motor show.
The carmaker is assessing the situation on a monthly basis, analysing data from the market, examining customer orders and looking at the restrictions on emissions. “We are trying to evaluate how much additional costs are going to come to diesel because they are going to add to its decline,” Ghosn added.
The situation is similar in India, where the government’s decision to advance implementation of BS-VI emission standards by three years to 2020 is likely to weigh on the demand for diesel vehicles due to the higher costs involved. In fact, the popularity of diesel vehicles has already worn out as it has been under attack ever since the Supreme Court’s ban. The share of diesel among the total sales of passenger vehicles in January 2017 declined to 39 percent from 43 percent, while that of petrol increased to 61 percent from 57 percent.
Internationally, diesel will have a crucial role in the short term to cope with the CO2 requirements, Samuelsson conceded. “Until 2020, diesel will continue to have a very important part to play. After that twin-engine (hybrid) and all-electric cars will become more favourable cost-wise, and when the requirement comes down below 95g/km, I am quite sure the diesel engine cannot help us."
Instead, he sees the future as increasingly electrified. "We will introduce our first all-electric car in 2019," he said, "and by 2025 I can see us offering a pure electric model in all of our ranges."
However, Samuelsson has no plans to create a bespoke electric vehicle architecture, as the two platforms upon which all Volvos will be based by the end of this year were always engineered with electric applications in mind. Samuelsson refused to be drawn on which model would be first to be electrified or what its likely performance and range might be.
With inputs from Andrew Frankel
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